The insanity continues - bid results just into our office. The scope here is an extensive amount of ACM pipe and associated fittings. While 85% of the abatement is readily exposed, some selective demolition is involved to reach part of the chases. An additional quantity of ACM floor mastic rounds the project.
Despite the public nature of these bid results, I still feel it is of little value to debase a competitor by naming each company here.
$77,550
$71,100
$63,550
$58,850
$43,820
$36,641
The numbers, particularly the low bid at $36,641, reflects troubled insensibility that has polluted our industry.
Showing posts with label 2010 outlook. Show all posts
Showing posts with label 2010 outlook. Show all posts
Monday, September 20, 2010
Monday, March 1, 2010
The State of the State
February proved to be far busier than what is reflected in postings here. The bid calendar was experiencing so much activity that it was not possible to meet the needs of all the RFP’s. I am hesitant to forecast that a strong first quarter will carry into the second quarter, but I remain cautiously optimistic.
Market indicators remain in an unnerving pattern; one of the more intimidating trends I noted was a triumvirate blend of a strong dollar, positive gold movement, paired with creeping oil – I dare someone to place this scenario into sane context.
While January housing sales posted an increase, numbers also indicated a slight uptick in housing starts yet more bubbles await us. Significant commercial lending is coming due and as a result, many speculate more bank failures. Additionally, consumer spending remains tepid, no significant positive impact coming out of job creation, and European dept reflected in the so called “PIGS” - Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain, point to the potential for another significant economic slide.
Amidst the present state of falling in and out of economic consciousness, many have asked, how does this translate into the types of demolition/environmental work that are coming into our office?
Despondently, public bid work continues to outpace private-negotiated opportunities by a significant margin. Only 18% of all work we have bid so far in the first quarter could be characterized as private. To further indurate the situation is that the folks who are facilitating private deals are no longer entertaining one or two trusted companies to bid a job, we are often battling five to seven competitors for a “nice” deal.
Healthy margins are becoming more and more difficult to achieve yet we remain committed to aggressive positioning. Geographically, a national job order contract with a Fortune 500 company is creating environmental abatement opportunities across the United States. Positioning our company on these abatement jobs will allow demolition opportunities occur – operations are poised to meet these new prospects. We continue to aggressively market our “green” approach to demolition and have advanced new contacts visa via references.
Market indicators remain in an unnerving pattern; one of the more intimidating trends I noted was a triumvirate blend of a strong dollar, positive gold movement, paired with creeping oil – I dare someone to place this scenario into sane context.
While January housing sales posted an increase, numbers also indicated a slight uptick in housing starts yet more bubbles await us. Significant commercial lending is coming due and as a result, many speculate more bank failures. Additionally, consumer spending remains tepid, no significant positive impact coming out of job creation, and European dept reflected in the so called “PIGS” - Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain, point to the potential for another significant economic slide.
Amidst the present state of falling in and out of economic consciousness, many have asked, how does this translate into the types of demolition/environmental work that are coming into our office?
Despondently, public bid work continues to outpace private-negotiated opportunities by a significant margin. Only 18% of all work we have bid so far in the first quarter could be characterized as private. To further indurate the situation is that the folks who are facilitating private deals are no longer entertaining one or two trusted companies to bid a job, we are often battling five to seven competitors for a “nice” deal.
Healthy margins are becoming more and more difficult to achieve yet we remain committed to aggressive positioning. Geographically, a national job order contract with a Fortune 500 company is creating environmental abatement opportunities across the United States. Positioning our company on these abatement jobs will allow demolition opportunities occur – operations are poised to meet these new prospects. We continue to aggressively market our “green” approach to demolition and have advanced new contacts visa via references.
Thursday, December 3, 2009
Forecasting 2010
At this point, I would regard 2009 as tepid at best. Industrial/retail vacancies are at an all time high, new home start-ups barely at a pulse, the hotel industry remains cautious, and available credit, what little there is, drips into the market.
On average, I speak with 40-50 real estate professionals daily - everyone from lenders to developers, commercial agents, and general contractors; the once hopeful anticipation of a decent 2009 has given way to macro indignation. There appears to be symptomatic depression in every conversation with anyone who carries a vested interest in the real estate market.
I have been attempting to forecast 2010 for several months. Indicators initially displayed some recovery in the second quarter; however, over the past two weeks, I am beginning to sense that 2010 may be worse than 2009.
The CMI reported by the National Association of Credit Management report released November 2 for October 2009 suggests that a 50.1 index breeches the natural stance of 50 thereby indicating a positive move toward growth.
It is my contention real estate is a critical pathway to overall economic recovery and without the credit market loosening cash/liquidity, we are looking toward a disastrous 2010.
Key factors to watch in forecasting 2010:
1. Manufacturing output
2. Oil, strength of dollar, gold
3. The REAL numbers behind jobless claims/unemployment
4. Holiday retail season [albeit, a rather short indicator]
5. Geopolitical issues
There is an incredible amount of existing cash on the sidelines which will require the appropriate credit to get projects off the ground. I can say this with a great deal of certainty as we have been engaged in “budgeting” dozens of projects. We have walked several parcels averaging 800,000 square feet where owners/developers are attempting to get a read on overall project costs. The vision reflected in these meetings shows investors in the ebb and flow of the next wave.
My conclusion: The pool of potential growth will quickly evaporate without a tsunami of credit. Let it rain.
On average, I speak with 40-50 real estate professionals daily - everyone from lenders to developers, commercial agents, and general contractors; the once hopeful anticipation of a decent 2009 has given way to macro indignation. There appears to be symptomatic depression in every conversation with anyone who carries a vested interest in the real estate market.
I have been attempting to forecast 2010 for several months. Indicators initially displayed some recovery in the second quarter; however, over the past two weeks, I am beginning to sense that 2010 may be worse than 2009.
The CMI reported by the National Association of Credit Management report released November 2 for October 2009 suggests that a 50.1 index breeches the natural stance of 50 thereby indicating a positive move toward growth.
It is my contention real estate is a critical pathway to overall economic recovery and without the credit market loosening cash/liquidity, we are looking toward a disastrous 2010.
Key factors to watch in forecasting 2010:
1. Manufacturing output
2. Oil, strength of dollar, gold
3. The REAL numbers behind jobless claims/unemployment
4. Holiday retail season [albeit, a rather short indicator]
5. Geopolitical issues
There is an incredible amount of existing cash on the sidelines which will require the appropriate credit to get projects off the ground. I can say this with a great deal of certainty as we have been engaged in “budgeting” dozens of projects. We have walked several parcels averaging 800,000 square feet where owners/developers are attempting to get a read on overall project costs. The vision reflected in these meetings shows investors in the ebb and flow of the next wave.
My conclusion: The pool of potential growth will quickly evaporate without a tsunami of credit. Let it rain.
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