Forecasting 2010

At this point, I would regard 2009 as tepid at best. Industrial/retail vacancies are at an all time high, new home start-ups barely at a pulse, the hotel industry remains cautious, and available credit, what little there is, drips into the market.

On average, I speak with 40-50 real estate professionals daily - everyone from lenders to developers, commercial agents, and general contractors; the once hopeful anticipation of a decent 2009 has given way to macro indignation. There appears to be symptomatic depression in every conversation with anyone who carries a vested interest in the real estate market.

I have been attempting to forecast 2010 for several months. Indicators initially displayed some recovery in the second quarter; however, over the past two weeks, I am beginning to sense that 2010 may be worse than 2009.

The CMI reported by the National Association of Credit Management report released November 2 for October 2009 suggests that a 50.1 index breeches the natural stance of 50 thereby indicating a positive move toward growth.

It is my contention real estate is a critical pathway to overall economic recovery and without the credit market loosening cash/liquidity, we are looking toward a disastrous 2010.

Key factors to watch in forecasting 2010:

1. Manufacturing output
2. Oil, strength of dollar, gold
3. The REAL numbers behind jobless claims/unemployment
4. Holiday retail season [albeit, a rather short indicator]
5. Geopolitical issues

There is an incredible amount of existing cash on the sidelines which will require the appropriate credit to get projects off the ground. I can say this with a great deal of certainty as we have been engaged in “budgeting” dozens of projects. We have walked several parcels averaging 800,000 square feet where owners/developers are attempting to get a read on overall project costs. The vision reflected in these meetings shows investors in the ebb and flow of the next wave.

My conclusion: The pool of potential growth will quickly evaporate without a tsunami of credit. Let it rain.

More From Marquette University

The “Daily News” seems to have keen interest in our efforts on behalf of Marquette University as their photographer John Krejci was out again yesterday documenting the work in progress.

We appreciate the coverage by the “Daily News”.

Marquette University

Another photograph from our work at Marquette University published in the “Daily Reporter”. Photo credit goes to John Krejci.

Marquette University

A photograph from our work at Marquette University published in the “Daily Reporter”.

Just In From The Field – Marquette University

Demolition began yesterday for Marquette University’s new engineering school; below is a picture sent in from our Field Superintendent.

Hide House Lofts development underway : The Bay View Compass

Champion Environmental Services, Inc. received local news coverage in the “Bay View Compass” newspaper concerning our progress at the Hide House demolition project. The article highlights our recycling efforts which have exceeded a 90% threshold before work is complete.

Champion Environmental Services, Inc. is regarded as an industry pioneer with regard to demolition recycling; our innovative practices predate the Green Building Council efforts to promote Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design know commonly as LEED certification. Champion Environmental Services, Inc. has facilitated a range of LEED projects over the years and is currently involved in several initiatives throughout Wisconsin.

A link to the “Bay View Compass” article is below.


Hide House Lofts development underway : The Bay View Compass

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Gateway Community Hospital Asbestos Abatement

Champion Environmental Services, Inc. is set to begin asbestos abatement at the abandoned Gateway Community Hospital in East St. Louis. The St. Clair County Board officially approved the contracts in a meeting Monday, October 26, 2009.

The following article concerning the job was published in the “Belleville News-Democrat”. The article was written by MIKE FITZGERALD.

Long tagged as an eyesore, abandoned hospital to be torn down
BY MIKE FITZGERALD - News-Democrat

BELLEVILLE -- The abandoned Gateway Community Hospital, long tagged as one of the worst eyesores in East St. Louis, is set to come down soon and possibly be replaced with a park, thanks to a vote Monday night by the St. Clair County Board.

The County Board approved two contracts worth nearly $623,000 with contractors to tear out and dispose of asbestos from the condemned building at 1509 Martin Luther King Drive and then demolish it and cart away the rubble.

"It'll be a great improvement for the city of East St. Louis," St. Clair County Board Chairman Mark Kern said.

Champion Environmental Services Inc., of Gilberts, won a county contract for $317,500 to remove and dump the building's asbestos, the contract shows.

Ahrens Contracting Inc., of St. Louis, won a contract worth $305,335 to raze the building, according to the contract.

Since its closure 20 years ago, the abandoned hospital has stood as one of this city's biggest and worst eyesores -- a magnet for rats, vandals and complaints, especially from parishioners at St. Joseph Catholic Church next door.

In March, the County Board agreed to pay a flat fee of $55,000 to SCI Engineering Inc., of St. Charles, Mo., to oversee the hiring of contractors to search for and remove asbestos from the building, and to tear down the structure.

Since autumn 2000, the old hospital had been condemned after East St. Louis city inspectors designated it unsafe.

Contact reporter Mike Fitzgerald at mfitzgerald@bnd.com or 239-2533.